House prices rise 14.7% in the third quarter of 2026 and the effort to buy reaches 36.9% of income, according to Tinsa

01/10/2026 – ⏱ 4 min

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation of any kind.

Tinsa by Accumin, the appraisal firm that produces the IMIE Mercados Locales statistical series, published its third-quarter report on 30 September 2026. House prices in Spain rose 14.7% compared with the same period of the previous year, a lower rate than the 15.5% of the previous quarter, and 2.8% compared with the second quarter. At the same time, the theoretical effort to buy a home reached 36.9% of household disposable income, above the 35.7% of the previous quarter and above the 35% threshold usually considered a benchmark.

The quarter's snapshot: 2,129 euros per square metre

The national median value stands at 2,129 euros per square metre. The year-on-year rise of 14.7% represents a moderation of eight tenths compared with the second-quarter reading, although the quarterly increase of 2.8% indicates that prices continue to grow. Adjusted for inflation, the year-on-year increase is 10.2%. Cristina Arias, head of Research at Tinsa, attributes the upward pressure to the shortage of supply and rising construction costs.

The effort to buy exceeds 36% of income

The effort indicator measures the proportion of household disposable income that would be devoted to buying a home. At 36.9% in the third quarter, the figure is above the 35% benchmark and rises 1.2 points in three months. In tourist areas and areas with a high concentration of jobs, according to the report, the effort exceeds 50%. In a context in which the Euribor closed September at 3.24%, its highest level since July 2024, and inflation stood at 4.9%, the cost of financing and the level of prices act simultaneously on affordability.

Autonomous communities: the Valencian Community leads the increases

By territory, the Valencian Community records the largest year-on-year increase, at 21.9%, followed by Castilla-La Mancha (20.5%), Cantabria (18.7%) and the Basque Country (15.2%). At the other end, Extremadura is the community with the smallest rise, at 3.4%. In quarterly growth, the Valencian Community (5.6%), Cantabria (4.9%) and the Basque Country (4.4%) again stand out. By province, the biggest rises are in Gipuzkoa (25%), Toledo (24.2%) and Valencia (23.8%).

Large cities: Madrid and Barcelona grow below the average

The two largest markets are advancing at a slower pace than the national average: Madrid rises 13.1% year on year and Barcelona 12.4%. Absolute levels remain the highest in the country; Tinsa's Salamanca district in Barcelona exceeds 8,000 euros per square metre. This pattern, with the large markets growing below the average and the pressure shifting towards communities and provinces with lower starting prices, is consistent with that shown by other residential indicators published in 2026.

Comparison with the 2007 peak

According to the report, nine autonomous communities match or exceed, in nominal terms, the peaks of the 2007 bubble. When inflation is taken out, prices remain 32% below that peak, and only the Balearic Islands exceed it in real terms, at 1% above. The difference between the nominal and real readings is relevant for interpreting the current cycle, because the comparison with 2007 depends on which series is used.

The context: supply deficit and the Banco de España's position

On the same day, the Governor of the Banco de España, José Luis Escrivá, ruled out for now imposing limits on mortgages and noted that lenders are being reasonably prudent in granting credit. The supervisor puts the number of homes Spain lacks at between 700.000 and 750.000, a deficit that could approach one million in 2028 if construction does not speed up, with an annual supply of new housing of around 100,000 units. Escrivá also warned that measures to protect vulnerable buyers may discourage construction over a two-to-three-year horizon if their effects are not assessed in advance.

Why this matters to the real-estate investor

The combination of rising prices, a purchase effort above the benchmark threshold and a supply deficit describes a market in which demand for new and refurbished housing remains above production capacity. That is the underlying asset of a good part of real-estate crowdfunding projects, whose terms and guarantees depend on the evolution of sale prices at the time of marketing. When purchase prices grow faster than household income, end buyers face more financing constraints, which can affect the sales pace of a development. Conversely, a higher price per square metre widens the valuation margin of assets. Neither effect is guaranteed in any specific project.

The moderation in the year-on-year rate (from 15.5% to 14.7%) does not allow a correction to be anticipated either: the series continues to grow at double-digit rates and the quarterly increase is 2.8%. Any estimate of returns linked to the appreciation of a residential asset is a hypothesis; such an estimate is subject to investment risk and is not guaranteed.

An investor's perspective

These figures should be handled with caution. Tinsa's values come from appraisals and its own methodology, so they do not coincide with the closing prices of registered sales or with the indices of other providers, such as the INE, notaries or listing portals. Regional and provincial data are calculated on samples of different sizes, so changes in small markets should be read with caution. Past results are no guide to future ones, and any real-estate investment carries risks of illiquidity, default and total or partial loss of capital.

At European level, the activity of crowdfunding platforms is governed by Regulation (EU) 2020/1503 and, in Spain, by the implementing rules and supervision of the CNMV. This information is provided for descriptive purposes and does not constitute a recommendation.

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