Inflation rises to 4.9% in September, its highest level since February 2023: what it means for the Euribor, mortgages and the housing market

03/10/2026 – ⏱ 4 min

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation of any kind.

The flash estimate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) published by the INE puts annual price growth at 4.9% in September 2026, six tenths above the 4.3% recorded in August. It is the highest rate since February 2023, when it reached 6%. The figure comes at a time when the European Central Bank has raised interest rates and the Euribor recorded its highest monthly average of the year in September, two variables that directly affect the cost of housing and financing.

The flash estimate figures

According to the INE, the monthly change in the general CPI is 0.3% compared with August. Core inflation, which excludes unprocessed food and energy products, stands at 3.1%, two tenths more than the previous month. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), the measure comparable with the rest of the European countries, rises to 5.0% year on year, four tenths more than in August, with core inflation at 3.2%. This is a flash estimate and is therefore subject to the final confirmation that the INE publishes later.

What explains the rise

The INE points to fuels and lubricants for personal vehicles, which are rising this month after falling in September 2025, and to package holidays, whose prices are falling less than in the same month of the previous year, as the main factors behind the acceleration. The Ministry of Economy has linked the rebound in fuel prices to tension in energy markets associated with the conflict in the Middle East and to the base effect of the fall recorded a year earlier. The gap between headline inflation (4.9%) and core inflation (3.1%) indicates that a significant part of the increase comes from energy.

The interest-rate context: the ECB and the Euribor

The inflation reading cannot be separated from monetary policy. On 10 September the ECB raised the deposit facility rate to 2.50%, and specialist media place the next meeting of its Governing Council on 29 October. Against this backdrop, the 12-month Euribor closed September with a monthly average of around 3.25% (3.251% according to the data published after certification by the Banco de España), compared with 2.952% in August and 2.172% in September 2025. It is the highest monthly value of 2026.

What it means for those with a variable-rate mortgage

The Euribor is the benchmark for most variable-rate mortgages in Spain, so its movements are passed on to the instalment at each review. A specialist portal estimates that, for a 150,000 euro loan over 25 years with a 1% spread, moving from the September 2025 Euribor to the September 2026 Euribor means around 83 euros more per month at an annual review, close to 1,000 euros a year. This is an illustrative example: the real effect depends on the outstanding capital, the term, the spread and the review date of each contract.

Rents, house prices and the effort required to buy

Inflation also influences the rental market, although not automatically. The updating of rent under an existing contract depends on what has been agreed in it and on the regulations and index that apply, so the general CPI is not passed directly on to all rents. It does so indirectly: higher prices reduce household disposable income and more expensive credit delays purchase decisions, which can increase rental demand in a market with limited supply. The latest published indicators on house prices and rents, which we have covered in other pieces, point to high levels in both segments.

An investor's perspective

Higher inflation and a Euribor at its highest of the year alter comparisons between assets. On the one hand, a higher cost of financing makes developers' and buyers' debt more expensive; on the other, inflation reduces the real return of any investment whose nominal yield does not offset it. It should be remembered that the figure is a flash estimate, that inflation may ease if energy prices are corrected, and that the ECB's decisions at the coming meetings are uncertain. Past results are no guide to future ones, and any real-estate investment carries risks of illiquidity, default and total or partial loss of capital.

At European level, the activity of crowdfunding platforms is governed by Regulation (EU) 2020/1503 and, in Spain, by the implementing rules and supervision of the CNMV. This macroeconomic context is one more variable that each person can consider when learning about the different ways of gaining exposure to real estate.

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