New-build permits rise 21.4% to 72,056 homes: the best first half since 2019 and 36% above pre-pandemic levels

21/09/2026 – ⏱ 7 min

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation of any kind.

The debate on housing in Spain has been revolving around the same axis for months: prices rise because supply does not arrive. The indicator that best anticipates whether that supply will change pace is neither price nor sales, but the site-management permit (visado de dirección de obra), the professional-association procedure that precedes the start of construction. The data published by the Spanish Higher Council of Architects' Associations (CSCAE) for the first half of 2026 point in a different direction from recent years: between January and June, 72,056 new-build homes were endorsed, 21.36% more than in the same period of the previous year. That is 12,682 additional homes and a volume 36% above the 2019 figure, the last full year before the pandemic.

What a permit actually measures and why it runs ahead of the market

The permit is the step through which a professional association checks the identity and qualifications of the technician who signs a project and verifies its documentary integrity before work begins. It is not equivalent to a municipal licence and does not guarantee that the development will be built, but it comes several months before the actual start of construction and between two and three years before the handover of keys. For that reason it is used as a leading indicator of future residential supply: what is endorsed today sets the ceiling of what the market will be able to absorb in the medium term, even if part of those projects is delayed or never materialises. Reading the figure as completed output would be a methodological mistake; reading it as a signal of the developer sector's investment intent is its reasonable use.

The figures for the first half of 2026

Beyond the count of homes, the CSCAE statistics measure floor area. The total area endorsed for new build grew 20% between January and June, to 15,559,152 square metres, 2.6 million more than in the first half of 2025 and the best start to the series since 2019. Within that total, residential floor area advanced 19%, with nearly 1.9 million additional square metres, while non-residential area rebounded 23.47% and exceeded three million square metres for the first time since 2019, driven above all by public facilities projects in Madrid and Catalonia. Adding new build and major refurbishment, total building activity grew 18% and reached 20,987,620 endorsed square metres, also the best overall figure since 2019.

One detail in the series is worth retaining: for the first time since 2019, every month of the first half of the year has recorded figures above those of the equivalent month of the previous year. It is therefore not an isolated month dragging the half-year along, but a sustained progression over six consecutive months.

The territorial map: where the momentum is concentrated

The advance is widespread, although with notable differences. In endorsed floor area for new build and refurbishment, the Balearic Islands, Aragon, the Basque Country and Madrid lead the increases, all above 25%. Only the Canary Islands record a decline, and a slight one: 2.5%. If we look only at new residential build, the breakdown changes strikingly. The Basque Country, the Balearic Islands and La Rioja grow by more than 50%, while Madrid and Extremadura are the only two territories in negative territory, with falls of 8.15% and 3.23% respectively.

The Madrid case deserves a nuance. Madrid leads the increases when total floor area is counted — pulled up by the surge in facilities and non-residential use — and falls when new housing is isolated. That divergence suggests that the serviced land available in the region is being allocated to uses other than residential, or that residential projects are being pushed to later phases of the calendar. It is a relevant figure for any analysis of future supply in the country's most stretched market.

Refurbishment lags behind in number of homes

The other side of the balance sheet is less favourable. Major refurbishment falls in number of homes: 28,411 units between January and June, 2,560 fewer than a year earlier, a decline of 8%. Refurbished residential floor area, however, does grow by 13%, driven above all by work on roofs and façades. The combination of both readings points to a change in composition: fewer homes worked on, but interventions of greater scope per project. With an ageing Spanish building stock and wide room for improvement in energy efficiency, the evolution of this item is a factor to watch, especially because of its link to the execution deadlines of the European funds.

The contrast with the structural deficit

To size up the figure, it should be set against the scale of the mismatch. The Banco de España has put the accumulated deficit needed to balance supply and demand at around 700,000 homes, with a production rate of around 100,000 units a year against the roughly 200,000 that, according to its estimates, household formation would require. A half-year with 72,056 homes endorsed clearly improves the starting point, but does not on its own close that gap: permits are not completions, and the distance between the two moments is measured in years. The CSCAE itself introduces explicit caveats. Its president, Marta Vall-llossera, links the risk in the coming quarters to geopolitical uncertainty, to the European Central Bank's rate rises and to the end of the Next Generation funds, and calls for public momentum to be sustained so as not to lose the inertia built up.

The financial factor: new build is more expensive to finance

That warning about rates is not rhetorical. The European Central Bank raised rates by 25 basis points at its meeting on 10 September, the second rise of 2026, and the twelve-month Euribor has climbed during the month to daily rates of around 3.37%, levels not seen since July 2024, with a provisional monthly average above 3.1% against the 2.954% with which August closed. The average rate on mortgage loans of more than three years published by the Banco de España stood at 3.134% with August data.

More expensive credit affects permits through two opposing channels. On the demand side, a more expensive mortgage reduces purchasing capacity and may delay purchase decisions, which puts pressure on the pre-sale rates on which the bank financing of a development depends. On the supply side, a higher cost of capital makes developer debt more expensive and narrows the margins of projects already designed on the assumption of lower rates. That permits continue to grow in this environment indicates that developers' absorption expectations currently weigh more than the cost of financing, although that balance is not guaranteed going forward.

Why this matters to the real-estate investor

For those analysing real-estate crowdfunding projects, permits are a first-order contextual variable, because they describe the size and location of the inventory of transactions that will seek financing in the coming quarters. A half-year with 21.36% more homes endorsed implies, mechanically, more developments in the financial structuring phase, more need for capital in the tranches that traditional banking does not cover — land acquisition, equity, bridge loans — and therefore a wider potential flow of opportunities. It also implies greater dispersion in quality between projects, because an expansionary cycle of permits brings in both established developers and operators with a shorter track record.

The geographical breakdown adds another layer of interpretation. That the Basque Country, the Balearic Islands and La Rioja lead growth in new residential build while Madrid falls signals a shift of developer activity towards markets that until now contributed a smaller volume of transactions. For the analysis of a specific transaction, the aggregate figure never replaces examination of the project — exact location, planning status of the land, guarantee structure, developer solvency and execution timetable — but it does help to understand whether that transaction sits in an expanding or a contracting local market. When a target return associated with a project is communicated, it should be remembered that this estimate is subject to investment risk and is not guaranteed.

A reading for the investor

There are several relevant caveats. A permit is not a finished home: between the professional-association procedure and handover come municipal licences, closed financing, construction contracting and execution, and part of the endorsed projects is delayed, resized or never built. The CSCAE statistics measure projects submitted, not output, and the year-on-year comparison starts from bases that in some small territories are very low, which amplifies percentage changes. The sector itself points to three open risks — geopolitics, interest rates and the exhaustion of European funds — that could slow the momentum in the coming quarters. Past results do not predict future ones, and all real-estate investment carries risks of illiquidity, default and total or partial loss of the capital invested.

In earlier cycles of expansion in residential development, some private capital has sought exposure to real-estate development through formulas other than the direct purchase of a property, including regulated crowdfunding platforms. This is an observed dynamic, not a recommendation. At European level, the activity of these platforms is governed by Regulation (EU) 2020/1503 and, in Spain, by the implementing legislation and the supervisory criteria of the Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores, including Circular 2/2020.

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