The Bank of Spain forecasts a deficit of more than one million homes by 2028, while 129 public housing tenders go unawarded

24/09/2026 – ⏱ 5 min

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation of any kind.

Two pieces of data published in the same week describe the two sides of Spain's housing problem. On 23 September 2026, Bank of Spain Deputy Governor Soledad Núñez put the accumulated housing deficit at around 755,000 units since 2021 and warned that it could grow by a further 300,000 between 2026 and 2028, which would take the gap above one million homes. A day later, an analysis by licitaciones.io of the Public Sector Procurement Platform counted 129 public housing tenders that have been left entirely unawarded so far this year, with 128.5 million euros unallocated. The lack of supply and the difficulty of delivering it thus appear side by side.

What the Bank of Spain said

Núñez spoke at the Forbes Economic Summit 2026, held in Madrid. In June, the supervisor's Annual Report had already raised the estimated housing deficit to around 750,000 homes; the new projection adds some 300,000 more by 2028. The deputy governor attributed the situation to insufficient supply and noted that real house prices have accelerated since 2024 to levels comparable to those of 2005. As a long-term reference, she indicated that since 1980 the real disposable income of Spanish households has been multiplied by 1.8, while real house prices have been multiplied by 3.5; for the Monetary Union as a whole, the equivalent figures are 1.6 and 1.8.

Households forming versus homes being completed

The origin of the deficit can be seen in a simple comparison. According to Bank of Spain estimates, around 240,000 households were formed in Spain in 2025, while some 92,000 homes were completed. The difference between the two accumulates year after year and explains the pressure on sale prices and rents. New-build permits have picked up in 2026, but the time between the granting of a licence and the delivery of a finished home usually exceeds two years, so that increase will take time to show up in available supply.

A social risk, not a financial one, according to the supervisor

Núñez ruled out that the market presents the same configuration of risks that preceded the 2008 crisis. Her argument rests on mortgage lending criteria remaining within prudent parameters and on households retaining levels of debt and interest burden that are low in historical terms. In her words, housing is a serious economic and social problem, but does not today pose a problem for the financial system. The deputy governor called for continued vigilance, effective supply policies and responsible credit standards to be maintained.

129 unawarded tenders and 128.5 million unallocated

The licitaciones.io analysis counts 129 public housing procedures that have been entirely unawarded in 2026. A further 20 awarded part of their lots and left the rest vacant, bringing the total to 149 tenders and 255 unawarded lots. Of those lots, 214 received no bid at all; in the rest, the proposals submitted were excluded. By type, 74 of the unawarded tenders were construction or refurbishment projects, worth 84.6 million euros, and another 22 concerned work on public land and assets, worth 37.6 million. The largest file was a development of 134 subsidised homes in Tenerife, promoted by the Canary Islands Housing Institute with a budget of 23.9 million euros and Next Generation funds, which received no proposals.

A stable pattern for five years

The phenomenon is not new. Up to 21 September, 10.4% of the housing tenders resolved in 2026 had gone unawarded, compared with 10.9% in both 2025 and 2021. By region, Andalusia has the highest number of unawarded procedures (23), followed by the Valencian Community and Aragón (18 each), Castilla-La Mancha (17) and Madrid (11). The Canary Islands total ten, but account for the largest amount, 50.6 million euros, owing to the weight of several large developments. The Basque Country, Navarra, Asturias and La Rioja recorded none in the period analysed.

Construction costs at the heart of the explanation

The most cited cause is the gap between the tender budget and the real cost of carrying out the works. The rise in the cost of materials, energy and labour has squeezed the sector's margins, and when the amount set by the authority does not cover those costs, contractors choose not to bid. According to the National Construction Confederation (CNC), 1,130 public tenders with no bidders, covering all types of works, were identified in the first half of 2026, with a combined budget of 707 million euros. Each unawarded procedure forces a review of conditions or prices and a new tender, which adds months to the delivery timetable.

Why this matters to the real-estate investor

The Bank of Spain's diagnosis matches what the 2026 price indicators show: housing demand growing faster than the sector's capacity to produce it. While that gap persists, the scarcity of supply tends to sustain both sale prices and rents. At the same time, the difficulties public development has in awarding works suggest that much of the short-term new supply will continue to depend on private initiative. Private residential development is, in turn, the underlying asset of numerous real-estate crowdfunding projects, in which the capital of individual investors finances the construction or refurbishment of homes.

The same factors that leave public tenders unawarded affect private development: rising construction costs, tighter margins and more expensive financing following the European Central Bank's rate rises in September. In a development project, a cost or schedule overrun can alter the expected outcome. That is why, when analysing any opportunity of this kind, it is relevant to review the works budget, the status of licences, the developer's experience and the guarantees provided. If a project announces a target return, that estimate is subject to investment risk and is not guaranteed.

Reading for the investor

The Bank of Spain's figures are estimates that depend on assumptions about household formation, migration flows and the pace of construction, and may be revised. The count of unawarded tenders comes from a private analysis of public data and does not include procedures that, after going unawarded, were successfully re-tendered. None of these data on their own anticipates the course of prices. Past results do not guarantee future results, and all real-estate investment carries risks of illiquidity, delays, default and total or partial loss of the capital invested. At European level, the activity of crowdfunding platforms is governed by Regulation (EU) 2020/1503 and, in Spain, by the supervision of the CNMV.

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