In August, the price of money stopped following apparent risk: what the month's 36 deals tell us

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This article is for informational purposes only and does not, under any circumstances, constitute investment advice or a recommendation.

The European real estate crowdfunding market closed August with 36 rounds opened and €46,525,739 raised, at an average of €1,292,382 per deal and an average term of 17.4 months. These are figures that, taken one at a time, say little. Put together, they reveal something that no platform publishes about itself: that the return offered to investors during the month did not move according to the apparent risk of each deal, but according to where it had been originated.

Two deals from the same platform, with the risk the wrong way round

The cleanest example comes from within a single house. On 28 August Wecity closed Arganda del Rey, a residential acquisition in Madrid with an LTV of 73.86%, offering 10.00%. Three days later it closed Cantabria Castañeda, also residential, also an acquisition, with an LTV of 15.03%, and offered it at 11.00%. Same platform, same month, same type of deal. The one that commits almost five times more of the collateral's value pays one point less.

Civislend illustrates the same phenomenon from the other end. Sierra Blanca Marbella, a single-family home with an LTV of 26.00%, came out at 13.00%, the highest IRR of the month among all the debt deals. Begur Costa Brava II, with an LTV of 68.00%, was offered at 10.00%. The relationship between collateral and price, once again, inverted.

A flat rate for an entire country

The second finding is geographical and much more marked. The month's ten Irish deals, all from Property Bridges, were offered at exactly 7.50%. All of them. Their LTVs range from 45.10% in Dingle to 70.50% in Kilmallock, twenty-five points of difference in the coverage ratio, and the rate does not move by a single tenth. Terms range from four to twenty-three months and do not alter the price either.

On the other side, the seventeen Spanish deals average 11.18% and move within a real range, from 9.50% to 13.00%, with structures and terms that are indeed reflected in the rate. The gap between the two markets is not a nuance: it is three and a half points of average difference, sustained throughout the month.

The contrast extends to size. Ireland contributed ten of the 36 deals — 28% of the count — but only €5,575,240, 12% of the volume, with an average ticket per deal of €558,000. Spain accounted for €28,285,000, 61% of the amount, with an average of €1.66 million per deal. These are two markets with different logics coexisting within the same product category.

The rest of the map

Italy contributed €4,725,499 in just two deals, one of them the largest individual raise of the month outside Spain. Portugal added €4,325,000 in three rounds, all of them capital-gain deals and all at 15.00%, the highest IRR in the market. France closed with €3,615,000 in four deals at an average of 11.25%.

By product type, crowdlending took 32 of the 36 deals and 88% of the volume, with an average IRR of 9.96%. The four capital-gain deals, all from Urbanitae in Portugal and Spain, stood at 15.00%.

Reading for investors

The first thing worth saying is what these data do not mean. A higher rate does not describe a better deal, nor does a flat rate describe a worse-managed market: it describes how the price is formed in each place, which is a different matter.

LTV, moreover, is only one piece of the risk, and not even the most decisive one. A low ratio on land without a building licence granted offers no more protection than a high ratio on a finished product that is being marketed. Among the deals cited there are differences in construction stage, developer solvency, security structure and asset type that the ratio does not capture. That the price does not follow LTV does not therefore imply that the price is badly formed; it implies that LTV, in isolation, is a poor thermometer for comparing deals with one another.

What can be stated is more modest and more useful: in August, knowing on which platform and in which country a deal had been originated explained its interest rate better than any data from the project itself. For anyone building a portfolio spread across platforms, that is a concrete warning: diversifying by platform and diversifying by risk are not the same thing, and an investor can end up with very homogeneous exposure without realising it.

Two methodological caveats before closing. The month's average IRR, 10.52%, is a simple average and is not weighted by amount raised, so the ten Irish rounds — small in euros but numerous — pull it down more than their real weight justifies; weighted, the number rises. And four deals were still open at the end of the month, so the completed fundraising figures will change once they are confirmed.

Any real estate investment carries a risk of illiquidity and of total or partial loss of capital, and one month's data do not anticipate the performance of any specific deal.

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